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#02Managing uncertainty
Uncertainty isn’t something to eliminate but to manage: it is the ground where meaningful innovation grows.
by Ilario Tornese · Certified Innovation Manager (UNI 11814)
The principle
When you innovate, information is missing: about the market, the technology, how people will react. That isn’t a flaw in the project, it is its nature. Managing uncertainty means turning assumptions into verified facts, one step at a time.
The most common mistake
A new idea is asked for the same certainty as a proven process: a three-year business plan, guaranteed ROI, no deviation from the plan. But risk can be calculated; uncertainty can’t. It only shrinks when you test.
How to recognize it
The portfolio holds only incremental improvements, because they are the only ones that get past the committee. The boldest ideas are dropped at the first hitch. Stopped projects are filed as losses, and nobody draws a lesson from them.
Where to start
Replace the question “how much will it return?” with “what is our riskiest assumption, and how can we test it in a month without spending much?”.
Uncertainty isn’t something to eliminate but to manage: it is the ground where meaningful innovation grows.
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